The final quarter of 2021 proved to be an eventful one for the global economy, with surging inflation and ongoing concerns about supply shortages. Yet markets performed relatively well over the period despite the new Omicron strain adding to the uncertainty. As we look ahead to 2022, economic indicators suggest the post-COVID recovery should continue, and so too should earnings growth.

Déjà vu in the UK. With COVID cases mounting once again and restrictions piling up, everyone is wondering whether Christmas will be cancelled once again.

A worrying new strain of COVID-19 has upended confidence in economic recovery, the path of interest rates and potentially the arrival of Father Christmas.

The recovery has come off the boil, but we think it will continue supporting the markets.

We expect inflation to start to fade in the second half of the year, allowing central bankers to keep their foot on the accelerator with loose monetary policy. 

Indicators of a strong post-COVID recovery keep coming out of the US and other major developed economies, but upside data surprises have brought with them concerns of persistent high inflation. 

Tougher times may lie ahead, but we believe the cyclical rally has further to run.

The US central bank’s nod to the surging American recovery frightened markets last week. These wobbly moments could become a longer-term fixture of the global recovery.

Jobs are the key to true recovery and the best clue to the path of longer-term inflation. Meanwhile, the great vaccination rolls on.

ESG investing has risen in popularity during the pandemic, driven by concern for the climate and society. With rising costs and uncertain returns on his ill-thought through chicken venture, Will McIntosh-Whyte is reminded you ignore the fundamentals at your peril.

The air is cold but the company is warm. England wraps up for the reopening of pubs and restaurants.

That goes hand in hand with rising bond yields, but equity investors needn’t be overly concerned.