Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Downcast, but out (spending)
The UK slumps into recession even as people’s spirits and retail sales rise. Meanwhile, trouble may be brewing in American inflation.
5 mins
Review of the week: American stocks pop
The US S&P 500 stock market index broke through 5,000 for the first time, hitting a record high last week as investors shrugged off worries that interest rates may not fall as fast as many had hoped.
6 mins
Review of the week: Don’t tread on me
US jobs strength pushes back interest rate cut forecasts yet further. Meanwhile, higher rates and changing business needs keeps squeezing commercial property.
8 mins
Review of the week: The oracle of Threadneedle Street
No change to monetary policy is expected this week, but investors will be eager for any clue about the Bank of England’s thoughts on inflation and interest rate cuts.
6 mins
Review of the week: Shoppers on strike?
UK retail sales slumped in December while inflation went in the other direction. Is the UK now in recession, albeit the mildest of the mild?
6 mins
Review of the week: Gimme shelter
Housing costs make up a big part of people’s spending, yet they can often obscure what’s going on with inflation.
7 mins
Review of the week: An old-fashioned Santa rally
A gruelling year for investors actually delivered decent returns. But how much of that strong performance is in anticipation of 2024?
6 mins
Review of the week: Rolling Returns
A Santa rally is in full swing for stocks and bonds, capping off a year of large swells for investors. While returns flow, climate policy is ebbing at COP28 in Dubai.
8 mins
Review of the week: Why not deflation?
A bout of runaway inflation could persuade some people that no inflation would be better than any at all. That’s a dangerous path to take.
7 mins
Review of the week: Happiness is Relative
After a miserable year for living standards, Brits are feeling much better about their lives and their futures. But how much will that move the dial for retail spending and economic growth?
6 mins
Review of the week: Which path are we on?
Updates on inflation and unemployment arrive this week. Will they give investors more clarity about the paths of interest rates?
5 mins
Review of the week: Up like a balloon
Central bankers have sat on their hands for another month, sending the prices of stocks and bonds soaring. While interest rates seem to have peaked, the full effects of previous increases are yet to be felt by households and businesses.
6 mins
In context
Investors seem to be flitting between fear and optimism in an increasingly erratic manner. Hopes for a soft-touch Federal Reserve seem to be driving most of the optimism, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
4 mins
A Gordian knot
Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK
4 mins
Hunting the red October
October was a brutal month for investors, with a simultaneous rise in bond yields and sharp correction in equity markets. In English, this means the value of both bonds and stocks headed the same way: down
4 mins
Hope emerging
Emerging markets recovered sharply last week after a hefty rate hike by the Turkish central bank and a more modest – but still applauded – one by the Russian monetary authority
5 mins
Summer days
It’s been a hot and sleepy summer punctuated by a few small scares, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. With a bit of luck, the trade-related worries should fade away over the rest of the year.
3 mins
Will he? Won’t he?
The government has got itself in another tangle over Brexit. Meanwhile, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth investigates the strange dichotomy that’s driving an ascendant dollar.
5 mins
Homo economicus
We all know £2.99 is a bargain and £3.00 is a scandal. Whoever first realised the incredible value hidden in that one pence made a lot of money on our irrationality. Brokers are now probably making that much money again with investors trading feverishly as the 10-year US Treasury broke the 3.00% milestone for the first time in a bit over four years.
5 mins
Tariff tangle
Trade threats and tech troubles have made investors nervous, but economies around the world remain healthy and relatively vibrant. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, says markets are likely to remain rocky, but that should provide opportunities
4 mins
Volatility revisited
After a rocky start markets have since settled, but possibly not for long. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
4 mins
Second-guessing
Inflation fears roiled markets in early February after a record stretch of stock market calm. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
5 mins
A miserable miracle
This has been one of the most begrudged share market rallies in modern times. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, explains why political deadlock may help it continue.
5 mins