Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Sudden market jolt gives way to tentative calm
Markets started wild as recession fears rose, yet became more orderly as last week progressed. Will the calm remain?
7 mins
Review of the week: A seismograph for US economic tremors
Stock markets around the world are being rocked as investors take fright about whether America is headed for recession in the coming months. Yet why is Japan the epicentre?
8 mins
Review of the week: Time to cut?
After months of waiting, there’s a strong chance that interest rates may fall in the UK this week. Across the Atlantic, the longed-for cuts won’t be till the autumn, if markets are correct.
6 mins
Review of the week: Biden bows out
After weeks of pressure, President Joe Biden has abandoned his bid for re-election. Will there be a battle for the Democratic nomination at next month’s party convention in Chicago, or will his successor be coronated quickly?
7 mins
Review of the week: Is the door opening to us rate cuts?
Political violence in the US is overshadowing last week’s big moves in the biggest US stocks, and widespread gains for smaller stocks too.
6 mins
Review of the week: Labour waltzes to victory
Sometimes polls are right and sometimes polls are wrong. Last week, we saw classic examples of both.
5 mins
Review of the week: The wave
The right-wing Rassemblement National was the big winner in the first round of French elections, but the most conclusive vote comes this weekend. Before then, the UK votes on its own Parliament.
7 mins
Review of the week: Political football
France goes to the polls for the first round of voting, the two candidates for the White House spar and the Euro knockout phase begins.
6 mins
Review of the week: Getting ahead of the Fed
The US Federal Reserve rows back on the potential for interest rate cuts even as inflation improves. Meanwhile, the French election also reverberates through bond markets.
7 mins
Review of the week: The year of the election heats up
The Year of the Election is already providing warning signs to expect the unexpected. Even when outcomes aren’t a huge surprise, painful (if temporary) pitfalls may lie ahead.
7 mins
Review of the week: The pathetic fallacy
Uncomfortable weather hangs over the UK and its markets as everyone waits for a sign of summer.
7 mins
Review of the week: Snap election, new policies
With the UK heading to the polls sooner than expected, the government announces policies that resonate with older voters. Meanwhile, disappointing inflation may have kiboshed a summer rate cut.
5 mins
Recovery rolls on, belying rocky times
Earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
4 mins
Full of surprises
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
4 mins
America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
4 mins
Springing yields
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
3 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
3 mins
Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
4 mins
Staying balanced
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
3 mins
America (finally) decides
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
3 mins
Post holiday blues
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
4 mins
A patchy summer
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
4 mins
Managing expectations
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
3 mins
Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?
With the groundwork laid for a rapid recovery, equity markets reflected continued optimism in June. But as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, significant risks remain.
3 mins
