Tougher times may lie ahead, but we believe the cyclical rally has further to run.

Stock markets have regained their positive momentum, but don’t expect a balmy and tranquil summer ahead.

The US central bank’s nod to the surging American recovery frightened markets last week. These wobbly moments could become a longer-term fixture of the global recovery.

Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.

Jobs are the key to true recovery and the best clue to the path of longer-term inflation. Meanwhile, the great vaccination rolls on.