Skip to main content
UK - Financial Adviser
Select Region Select User Type
  • Global
    • Home
  • UK Investors
    • Financial Adviser
    • Private Investor
  • International Investors
    • Private Investor
    • Professional Investor
  • Fund Centre
    • Our Funds
      • Equities
        • Rathbone Global Opportunities Fund
        • Rathbone Greenbank Global Sustainability Fund
        • Rathbone Income Fund Fund
        • Rathbone UK Opportunities Fund
      • Fixed Income
        • Rathbone Ethical bond Fund
        • Rathbone High Quality Bond Fund
        • Rathbone Strategic Bond Fund
        • Rathbone Greenbank Global Sustainable Bond Fund
      • Multi-Asset
        • Rathbone Greenbank Multi-Asset Portfolios
        • Rathbone MULTI-ASSET PORTFOLIOS
      • Sustainable
        • Rathbone Greenbank Global Sustainable Bond Fund
        • Rathbone Greenbank Global Sustainability Fund
        • Rathbone Greenbank Multi-Asset Portfolios
    • Literature Library
    • Consumer Duty
    • Prices and Performance
    • Glossary of Terms and FAQs
  • Strategies
    • Equities
    • Fixed Income
    • Multi-Asset
    • Sustainable
  • Our Clients
    • Private Investor
    • Financial Adviser
    • International Private Investor
    • International Financial Adviser
  • Rathbones
  • Global Home
  • Insights
    • Fund Insights
    • In the know blog
    • Review of the week
    • The Sharpe End podcast
  • About us
    • About us
    • Our People
    • Awards
    • Media centre
    • Responsible Investing at Rathbones
  • Contact
Home Home

Search

  • Fund Centre
    • Our Funds
      • Equities
        • Rathbone Global Opportunities Fund
        • Rathbone Greenbank Global Sustainability Fund
        • Rathbone Income Fund Fund
        • Rathbone UK Opportunities Fund
      • Fixed Income
        • Rathbone Ethical bond Fund
        • Rathbone High Quality Bond Fund
        • Rathbone Strategic Bond Fund
        • Rathbone Greenbank Global Sustainable Bond Fund
      • Multi-Asset
        • Rathbone Greenbank Multi-Asset Portfolios
        • Rathbone MULTI-ASSET PORTFOLIOS
      • Sustainable
        • Rathbone Greenbank Global Sustainable Bond Fund
        • Rathbone Greenbank Global Sustainability Fund
        • Rathbone Greenbank Multi-Asset Portfolios
    • Literature Library
    • Consumer Duty
    • Prices and Performance
    • Glossary of Terms and FAQs
  • Strategies
    • Equities
    • Fixed Income
    • Multi-Asset
    • Sustainable
  • Our Clients
    • Private Investor
    • Financial Adviser
    • International Private Investor
    • International Financial Adviser
  • Rathbones
  • Global Home
  • Insights
    • Fund Insights
    • In the know blog
    • Review of the week
    • The Sharpe End podcast
  • About us
    • About us
    • Our People
    • Awards
    • Media centre
    • Responsible Investing at Rathbones
  • Contact
Home

Search

The journey begins

After many debates, votes and faff, the UK is just about ready to start leaving the EU. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes a look at the year ahead and the one just gone.

19 December 2019

Breadcrumb

  1. Home
  2. Knowledge and Insight
  3. The journey begins

Article last updated 19 February 2023.

After the better part of four years, the UK finally has its boots on and ready to set off on the path to Brexit. It took a while to figure out which deal we wanted, which government we wanted, which Parliament we wanted … but after three elections and a whole lot of chat, British voters gave Boris Johnson’s Conservatives the largest majority since Thatcher and a mandate to drag the UK from the EU.

Mr Johnson moved quickly to reinforce that he intends to implement his deal when the transition period finishes in December 2020, putting forward a law compelling Parliament to leave on that date, deal or no deal. While the certainty is welcome, he has set himself – and the handful of UK trade negotiators – a punchy target. A free trade agreement (FTA) in less than 12 months has raised many an eyebrow, but then, what do experts know? We’ll find out soon enough whether Mr Johnson can pull off the impossible – he’s already done it twice now – or if this is simply an elaborate negotiation tactic that will be dispensed with as the facts change (again, something with precedent).

Be sure, though, if Mr Johnson cannot seal an FTA with the EU, it would put the UK in a precarious situation. Trade with our largest partner – and with everyone else, for that matter – would revert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms. And WTO terms aren’t a great place to be right now. The world’s trade environment is febrile, antagonistic and relatively protectionist. Not only that, but the WTO’s only disputes service was shuttered this month by American machinations. Any country that wants fair trade, will need to agree an FTA (they tend to have their own dispute resolution processes). But larger nations tend to have the advantage when negotiating FTAs because they can offer large markets that move the needle more for the other party, i.e. “they need you less than you need them”. A case in point is the recent FTA between the US and Japan. Japan is no sleepy backwater, yet it still inked what appeared to be a sweetheart deal for America. The consequences of its carmakers, software developers and hardware manufacturers losing access to the world’s largest market (or getting slapped with large tariffs and having no recourse to the WTO) was just too much to fight its corner.

As for the UK, that’s all something to worry about in the future. There will be plenty of twists and turns till then. Indeed, Mr Trump, who has frayed so many trade ties since coming to office in 2016, may fail in his November re-election bid. Recession may hit the world in 2020 or GDP growth may rebound strongly – although we’re not in the camp that thinks either of these outcomes is likely. Rather, we think the world will probably tick on as it has, with growth remaining muted but still easily positive. Allied to that, inflation is likely to stay below that targeted by most developed nations’ central banks. The US Federal Reserve certainly thinks so: it has all but ruled out any interest rate hikes in 2020.

Index

1 month

3 months

6 months

1 year

FTSE All-Share

2.2%

3.8%

5.8%

11.0%

FTSE 100

1.8%

2.9%

4.9%

10.2%

FTSE 250

4.2%

8.1%

11.4%

16.1%

FTSE SmallCap

3.3%

5.4%

3.0%

8.0%

S&P 500

3.6%

1.4%

12.0%

13.8%

Euro Stoxx

1.7%

1.8%

8.4%

13.7%

Topix

0.7%

3.6%

9.9%

6.9%

Shanghai SE

-1.8%

-4.7%

-5.2%

8.2%

FTSE Emerging

0.3%

-0.4%

3.3%

7.9%

Source: FE Analytics, data sterling total return to 30 November

Whirlwind year

As Christmas and 2020 steam toward us, we find ourselves wondering where 2019 went. Never has there been such an action-packed 12 months when everything seems to have happened and yet, we all remain in the same place.

Once again, the US and China are planning to sign a trade deal in the first couple of months of the coming year. A UK government is setting out to get parliamentary approval for a Brexit deal and drag the country out of the EU. The US central bank is promising that interest rates won’t be rising in the year ahead. Economists are still predicting recession will doom us all sometime in the next 12 months. Hopefully this time the green shoots of progress won’t be a let down and we can move on from the strange purgatory of endless trade threats and Brexit breakdowns …

It’s been a pretty good year for asset prices, however. Both stocks and bonds delivered strong returns in 2019. Very much obscured in what will be remembered as a stressful year for investors. Perhaps it’s time for us all to take some time out, enjoy some food and fun with our families and forget about the world and its troubles for a while. No doubt they will all be there waiting for us when we get back!

Thank you all so much for your support this year (and all the other years). We hope you have a wonderful holiday break!

Bond yields

Sovereign 10-year

Nov 30

Oct 31

UK

0.70%

0.63%

US

1.78%

1.69%

Germany

-0.36%

-0.41%

Italy

1.23%

0.92%

Japan

-0.07%

-0.13%

 

Source: Bloomberg

Popular Articles

Income Fund
4 June 2025

Income Fund | June 2025

Join Alan Dobbie and Carl Stick, managers of the Rathbone Income Fund, as they share how their disciplined approach has delivered first-quartile, market-beating returns so far in 2025—and what they believe lies ahead for income-focused investors.

Find out more

1 min

ethical bond fund field
30 April 2025

Ethical Bond Webcast | April 2025

After a period of volatility in risk markets, Bryn will give his views on the outlook for rates and credit markets and will go into how the Washington whack-a-mole politics are creating very short-term volatility.

Find out more

1 min

9341_multi-asset_webinar_cm.jpg
14 May 2025

Multi-Asset Webcast | May 2025

Join David Coombs, Head of Multi-Asset Investments of the Rathbone Multi-Asset Portfolios, for his next webcast on Wednesday 14 May at 10.00 am.

Find out more

1 min

MOST READ
  1. Income Fund | June 2025

  2. Ethical Bond Webcast | April 2025

  3. Multi-Asset Webcast | May 2025

  4. Review of the week: The emperor's new tariffs

  5. Beauty's in the eye of the bondholder

Let's Talk

Ready to start a conversation? Please complete our enquiry form, we look forward to speaking with you

Enquire
  • Important Information
    • Brexit Statement
    • Important information
    • Modern Slavery Statement
    • Accessibility
    • Privacy
    • Cookies
    • Cookie preferences
    • Complaints
  • Important Information
    • Consumer Duty
    • Voting disclosure
    • Assessment of value reports
    • TCFD Reports
    • SDR Consumer-Facing Disclosures
    • Financial Ombudsman Service
    • Financial Services Compensation Scheme
    • Glossary of terms and FAQs
    • MIFIDPRU8
Address

Rathbones Asset Management
30 Gresham Street
London
EC2V 7QN

Rathbones Asset Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and a member of the Investment Association. A member of the Rathbone Group. Registered Office 30 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QN. Registered in England No 02376568.

© 2025 Rathbones Group Plc
Incorporated and registered in England and Wales. Registered number 01000403

Follow us
LinkedIn
City Hive Logo
ACT Logo

Rathbones Asset Management is delighted to be an early signatory of the ACT Framework created by City Hive

Diversity Project Logo

Rathbones Asset Management is a member of The Diversity Project

The value of your investments and the income from them may go down as well as up, and you could get back less than you invested.