Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Gloves off?
US stocks held up well during a wild week of White House adjustments to its tariff policies. US government bonds and the dollar were less fortunate.
6 mins
Review of the week: The emperor's new tariffs
Markets are tumbling fast in response to US tariffs that will upend global trade. Perhaps more dangerous than the policy itself is just how silly it makes the administration look.
9 mins
Review of the week: The language of trade
The US government plans to slap tariffs on virtually all imports to the US as part of ‘Liberation Day’. The details are yet to be revealed, but the most immediate effect is already apparent: higher prices.
1 min
Review of the week: Borrowing rises ahead of UK spring forecast
The government is poised to cut public spending. Will its Spring Forecast also tinker with taxes and borrowing? If so, UK government bonds could bear the brunt.
1 min
Review of the week: Take a breath
American stocks have taken a jolt downward, rattled by an escalating trade war and an unpredictable President. It’s not a time to panic.
1 min
Review of the week: MEGA moves for Europe
American threats to hit Europe with tariffs and abandon NATO may have spurred the EU to loosen the purse strings and invest heavily in infrastructure and its own defence. Continental stocks are rising rapidly in anticipation of a sea change for Europe.
1 min
Review of the week: Is Europe at sea?
Seismic geopolitical changes are wrenching the post-war global order, straining the transatlantic partnership and upending supply chains. Investors are recalculating furiously, putting financial markets in flux as well.
1 min
Review of the week: Big changes, big uncertainty
The anticipation of Trump 2.0 has driven stock market excitement and household confidence in the months since his election. Now he’s in office, is the reality starting to subdue that optimism?
1 min
Review of the week: The ecstasy of gold
Gold hit an all-time high last week, just in time for Valentine’s Day. But it’s not lovers who are doing all the buying.
1 min
Review of the week: All fine bar the tariffs
Despite a whirlwind week of tit-for-tat on trade, borrowing costs have fallen back. Will this boon for investors, households and governments outlast the next inflation print?
1 min
Review of the week: The Trump train rolls on
The White House has issued a flurry of decrees in its first fortnight. While not unexpected, they’re already creating unease in markets and chaos in the government.
1 min
Review of the week: DeepSeek or deep fake?
A Chinese start-up says it created an AI tool at a fraction of the cost that Western rivals paid. It shouldn’t be a fatal blow, but the development should trigger answers to lingering investor concerns on runaway chip buying.
1 min
Recovery rolls on, belying rocky times
Earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
4 mins
Full of surprises
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
4 mins
America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
4 mins
Springing yields
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
3 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
3 mins
Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
4 mins
Staying balanced
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
3 mins
America (finally) decides
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
3 mins
Post holiday blues
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
4 mins
A patchy summer
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
4 mins
Managing expectations
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
3 mins
Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?
With the groundwork laid for a rapid recovery, equity markets reflected continued optimism in June. But as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, significant risks remain.
3 mins
